Ojalá "likely exception" quiera decir así como en tono relajado chance y no.
Pandemics and Depression
Robert J. Barro and José F. Ursua
…
Our ongoing study of economic disasters for 36 countries since 1870
suggests that this concern is well founded. In this sample, we have
isolated 158 depressions — defined as declines in a country's real per
capita gross domestic product (GDP) by at least 10%. The most prominent
features of these depressions are wars and financial crises. But the
fourth-worst global macroeconomic event since 1870 seems to be the
Great Influenza Epidemic of 1918-20. This "health shock" accounts for
13 of the depression events. In contrast, World War II is associated
with 25, World War I with 23, and the Great Depression of the early
1930s with 21.
…
For most countries — with Mexico as a likely exception — the
swine-flu epidemic of 2009 may turn out not to have greater
macroeconomic consequences than the other four post-World War II flu
crises. However, we already have substantial depression risks, arguably
20%-30% in the U.S., due to the global financial crisis that began in
2008. The potential for a flu pandemic surely adds to the depression
odds, particularly since — like the 1918-20 epidemic — the current
strain disproportionately impacts persons of prime working age.
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